Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2509 · LIH → HNL
departs 8:20 AM HT · arrives 9:05 AM HT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 3%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
2%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
2%
Leave 15+ late
2%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
8am departures from LIH are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.