Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 254 · PDX → OAK
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PDX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.