Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2561 · MCI → LAX
departs 8:25 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.