WN 2564 · AUS → SJC

took off 12:56 PM CT · expected to land 2:00 PM PT (scheduled 12:05 PM CT → 1:46 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

LIVE

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ SJC is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2564 · AUS → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?