WN 257 · DEN → OAK

departs 5:55 AM MT · arrives 7:35 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DEN are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 257 · DEN → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?