Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2582
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2582 · PDX → SAN
departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.