Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 261 · AUS → BNA
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.