Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2641
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2641 · PHL → STL
departs 1:45 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.