Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2647
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2647 · SNA → AUS
departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 4:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.