Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2653 · BWI → RSW
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 11:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±8 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.