Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2653 · STL → BWI
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.