Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2683 · SFO → BWI
departs 9:10 PM PT · arrives 5:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.