Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2690 · MSY → MCO
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.37 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.