Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2730
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2730 · BWI → MDW
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.