Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2786 · SAT → ELP
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ELP at that hour are often late
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.