Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 278 · SFO → LAX
departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 3:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 55% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.