WN 2791 · MCO → ROC

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ROC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

ROC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2791 · MCO → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?