Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2803 · MDW → LGA
departs 12:55 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.