Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2805
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2805 · SMF → GEG
departs 9:50 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.