Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2806 · SAT → MCO
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.