WN 2807 · BWI → RDU

departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.17 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2807 · BWI → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?