Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2809 · PDX → LAS
departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 3:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.