WN 2814 · MCO → STL

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2814 · MCO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?