WN 2821 · BNA → ECP

departs 8:06 PM CT · arrives 9:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ECP?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day

↑ 8pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ ECP usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ECP (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip3.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2821 · BNA → ECP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ECP?