Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2838 · SMF → BUR
departs 4:25 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.