WN 2845 · LAS → SAT

departs 10:20 AM PT · arrives 3:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2845 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?