Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2851 · SFO → SAN
departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 4:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.