Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2852 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 2852 · MCO → BUF

departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

72% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

BUF (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2852 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time