Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2852 · MDW → PDX
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 12:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.