Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 2853 · SAN → COS
departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.