WN 2870 · MSY → BNA

departs 2:06 PM CT · arrives 3:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ 2pm departures from MSY are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BNA that day

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.03 in

BNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2870 · MSY → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?