WN 2874 · SFO → LAS

departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 4:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2874 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?