Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2876 · MDW → RNO
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.