WN 2892 · BNA → TPA

took off 6:34 PM CT · expected to land 8:56 PM ET (scheduled 6:05 PM CT → 9:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

TPA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2892 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?