Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2892
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2892 · ELP → SAT
departs 1:10 PM MT · arrives 3:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from ELP are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.