Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2915 · TPA → PVD
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.