Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2956 · HOU → SAT
departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
HOU usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.