Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2964 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 2964 · MSY → DAL

departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 6:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DAL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.76 in

DAL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2964 · MSY → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?