Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2975 · LAX → RNO
departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 1:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.