Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2975
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2975 · RNO → DEN
departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.