Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2996 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 2996 · RDU → PHX

departs 10:32 AM ET · arrives 11:32 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2996 · RDU → PHX

Odds over time