WN 3017 · MEM → HOU

departs 5:40 AM CT · arrives 7:28 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MEM are usually not late

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3017 · MEM → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?