Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3130 · RDU → MCI
departs 1:25 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.05 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.