Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3130 · SMF → SNA
departs 5:40 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.