WN 3138 · MSY → MCI

departs 5:31 AM CT · arrives 7:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.41 in

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3138 · MSY → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?