WN 3139 · LAS → RNO

departs 10:59 PM PT · arrives 12:26 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3139 · LAS → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?