Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3154 · LAS → SMF
departs 10:35 PM PT · arrives 12:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.