Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 3156 · TPA → MDW
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.