WN 3194 · OAK → SAN

departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:42 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Sundays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3194 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?