WN 3203 · PHX → OAK

took off 10:04 AM MT · expected to land 11:37 AM PT (scheduled 9:51 AM MT → 12:00 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3203 · PHX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?